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My Art Collection

One of the cool things I get to do when I come back home to Taiwan is visit w/ some of my parents’ more accomplished friends.  There’s one that’s in manufacturing like us, Mr. Y, who didn’t have kids so they have always viewed my sister and me as their own.  He’s an avid squash player and every time he sees me I would go play w/ him and get my ass whooped.  I’m meeting w/ another one, Mr. L, tomorrow that’s an advance photography amateur who was CFO at a company that supplies parts to Apple.  One of the more intriguing guys though, Mr. C, has become somewhat of a connoisseur in the art world.  He particularly likes Asian art and the ones that exemplify Asian culture or values.

To me, it’s a fascinating world.  Not just the art itself but the world of these auction houses like Sotheby’s and Christie’s: the business model, the economics behind it (it’s supply and demand… uh, on demand?), and just about every little facet.  Not to down play the art aspect, b/c it is really cool expensive.  I think it’d be rude of me to disclose the amount of some of these pieces cost in his house and all together how much he invested stored away elsewhere.  To me, art is a form of communication, albeit a rather abstract one sometimes.  It’s like a game of detective w/ clues everywhere.  Who is the artist?  What was his personality like?  What kind of time or background was he brought up in that could’ve layed seed to his point of view?  What was he thinking when he made this piece?

I asked him a lot of questions.  Much to my surprise these auction houses charges a 25/10 percentage commission.  Think about real estate, which is 6% w/ the buyer and the seller’s agent both getting 3%.  He told me that Sotheby’s charges 10% of final sold price from the seller and 25% from the bidder. HOLY CRAP!  Some of these pieces go for $3-7 million easily.  Say if it’s $5 million, 25% commission is $1.25 million.  Even just the crate that they ship it in is couple of hundreds of dollars.

What I didn’t have time to get into is whether the auction houses are essentially the ones creating supply and demand or collectors like himself influences the market more.  Are we all to assume that all the art collectors out there know the proper valuation for each piece, or is the prices much more at the whim of Sotheby’s who in turn tells art collectors which piece is valued more than the others?  If an artist suddenly passed away and many collectors are looking to cash in, would the auction house intentionally withheld some of the art works, hence curbing supply?  I know for some of the artists’ works he’s practically cornered the market himself.  He has told me how he did it but again, I don’t think it’s something I can disclose here.

As a side note, he asserted that Sotheby’s stock (BID) is a leading indicator for the stock market.  He contended that this is where 20% of the world’s population controlled 80% of the wealth.  If all the cashflow from this pool dries up, something’s wrong.  The big fall auction in 2008 did not meet expectation and soon followed the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.  Looking at the chart, I think many companies were already showing signs of weakness prior to Sept 2008, so the data from just that year is inconclusive.  However, if you look at 2007, you can see the sharp drop in BID’s price in the fall.  Perhaps many of the world’s super rich were already preparing for the rough road ahead by tightening their wallets??

The art auction world is most active in the spring and fall.  Hopefully I can go w/ him on a trip to New York or Hong Kong after I get done w/ the GMAT.

My New Title

I changed the title of the blog.  When I switched from Blogger to WordPress I couldn’t find a title that fits me.  I wanted something that would convey travel or a journey.  One of the choices was wanderlust but quite a few people uses that and I felt the word has lost its specialness.  The new title “In-Transit” came to me while I was at an airport.  I have noticed a long time ago how funny some of my clearest thinking come to me while I’m waiting for my flight.  It came to me while I thinking about airlines moving people like packages and I started thinking about all our containers that went out at year end.  Somehow the image of checking your package on UPS or FedEx came to mind and how it often show “in-transit.”

Turns out the The New York Times’ travel blog uses this title as well… so I added a hyphen as oppose to “in transit” as two words.  I’m pretty happy about the title.  Of course if I something better comes to mind I’ll probably change it again.  It reflects the most important aspect of my life right now w/ the family manufacturing business.  It reflects my feeling of progressing towards the next big checkpoint in life.  There’s a line from the movie Rounders, something to the sort of “Life is on the wire, the rest is waiting.”  The original quote was from Karl Wallenda, a tight rope walker.  Everybody has their own interpretation of the line.  To me it means taking chances and doing what you are passionate about.  You’re waiting for that next high (not drug related, or high on life if you like that expression.  I don’t).  We’re all just biding our time in the cubicle for that next big trip.

I didn’t include this in the New Year resolution, but I promise to make the blog more interesting with more pictures and links.  It’s just that… well, it takes more time to do that.

My 2010

Sawadee pee mai!  That’s Thai for Happy New Year.  I learned that from our taxi driver.  Looking back at the personal goals I set for myself last year from the old blog I was somewhat happy with the result.

  • Get out more! – this one is a little hard to judge b/c it wasn’t very quantifiable. I mentioned about getting a bike and I did get a Specialized road bike and quite enjoy cycling. If only I can find a longer flat ride or become a better climber.
  • Read more fiction – I didn’t explicitly wrote down that I wanted to read at least a book a month b/c I probably didn’t think I could do it. Looking back, I did read about a book a month, if you count GMAT books the last few months of the year.
  • Have lunch/hang out with one friend that’s in Austin once a month and call two friends that moved away each month – not all the way there, but did quite a bit, especially during my west coast MBA trip.
  • Take a photography class – I didn’t take a formal class, but I know I am a better and more knowledgeable photographer now. I got Scott Kelby’s books and couple of others and they are quite helpful.
  • Learn a foreign language – Yeah, this didn’t happen. I had a friend burn me copies of Rosetta Stone through his work’s database and I then lost the CDs, so… yeah…
  • Cook once a week – I knew when I wrote this one down it’s not gonna happen. If my mom is in town it’s hard to take over control of the kitchen. I did learn a few dishes and got pretty good at making dumplings.

As for 2010…

  • Visit a country I’ve never been before – I’m in Thailand as I write this so I’m not counting it. Iceland w/ Hilda’s family, Argentina, Middle East, Australia/New Zealand
  • Read a book each month – last year I tried to focus on non-fictions, I don’t really care anymore. Just read and learn. As a corollary…
  • Get a library card – I have yet to change my address on my driver’s license, which updated address is required to have a library card.
  • Refine my speech – In Toastmasters we count a person’s filler words, such as um, uh, and eh. I’m taking it a step further to get rid of words such as sort of, kind of, I guess, I mean and I don’t know. There are words that I say in everyday conversation that take away from my credibility and I have caught myself more and more lately. Imagine if you proposed to someone and the response you get was “I don’t know, yes I guess. I mean, I love you.” The whole I mean thing is just redundant.
  • Increase my vertical by 4 inches – not exactly sure how difficult this will be. I roughly measured my vertical at home the other day and I have about a 24, 26 inch reach (w/out warming up). Since I’ve been playing volleyball so much lately, this would be a good goal for me to stay in shape.
  • Improve my vocabulary – 365 new words to be exact
  • Learn a new recipe each month – each week last yr was too much.  Setting a more realistic bar this yr.  This is borrowed from my friend Sarah. The point is not to just cook once a month, but to learn how make something, understand how the recipe works and even make my own modifications.

My Asphalt

A while back I noticed there are quite a few road paving construction projects going on everywhere I go and not just in Austin but in various cities I visited outside of Texas as well.  Some of the highways were perfectly fine before but they were still repaving it for some reason.

I did a little research for asphalt companies and found TransMontaigne Partners (TLP), Holly Corp (HOC), Valero (VLO), and NuStar Energy (NS).  If I did my job right I would’ve followed the news closer regarding the stimulus bill and gone into the 10-K’s and found exactly what portion of the company’s business is in asphalt b/c these guys are mostly refiners and asphalt is just a part of the product matrix.  By the time I caught on I had missed a lot of the move so I can’t exactly say this was a spectacular find.  TLP and HOC did do pretty well though.

Now that a lot of these companies, along w/ construction companies like FLR, ACM, URS and GVA have tanked quite a bit in response to bleak prospect of more stimulus money and projects maybe they’ll be back in favor if we hear more gov’t money going into public construction?  At this moment, I’m a little late again to take a short position.  The upside doesn’t quite justify the risk in my opinion.

My Turning the Table

Continuing from yesterday’s post about advices admissions have for people applying, I’d like to turn the table around and ask: are you following your advices?  Through all my visits and research, I’m starting to feel that’s not always the case.  I doubt any admissions officers reads this blog (maybe they do… I wouldn’t be surprised if it did come across their monitors some how, some time).

Take for example the advice about actually demonstrating your qualities through what you’ve done… well, USC Marshall, are you following your own advice?  Almost every school boasts about its collaborative environment, but Marshall’s build is so small and break out or meeting spaces are not just limited, they’re almost non-existent.  Am I likely to believe what you say when you don’t provide the facilities to well, facilitate that environment?  If you go to Marshall and you experience otherwise, go ahead, feel free to blast me in the comment section.

Another big thing is not say/write what you think admissions want to hear, but truly show your personality.  Well, then why does all the recruiting brochures look/sound alike?  Just count how many times you saw a guy in a blue button down shirt w/ chinos.  It’s always diversity this and international that.  Is it possible you put that in there b/c that what we, the applicants, want to hear?

Finally, you hear a lot of admissions say they want to see demonstrated leadership and progression in a person’s career through the application.  Many schools I feel hasn’t demonstrated their leadership in the MBA or higher education realm and they’re not really making any progress.  They’re not keeping up w/ what’s important to students and employers

So yeah, I’d like to turn the table around and call BS on that.

My MBA Advices

One activity that’s quickly becoming one of my favorites is listening to my podcasts while on the stationary bike.  I subscribe to a lot of podcasts, the same w/ feeds in my Google Reader.  There’s just too much info and I can’t keep up but it also allows my favorites to shine through.  Most of the podcasts and feeds are about music, travel, photography and the market.

While the title says “MY”,I should cite that they’re actually from MBA Podcaster, more specifically they’re from a few episodes in late September to October, 2009.  There are some really good advices, especially from the episode regarding what not to do on your application.  Although, they’re not particularly new or mind blowing to me, but I thought I’d share a few

  • Your essays should complement the transcript and resume, not just duplicate it
  • Don’t guess and write what admissions wants to hear, write what you wan them to know
  • Find-and-replace mistakes: referring to a school or city that you’re not actually applying to (I assume the person is talking about the function in Microsoft Word to find the name of the school in the draft and replace all of them b4 sending it in to the 2nd school)
  • Allow yourself enough time to write, edit, rewrite the essays, as well as the rest of the application as well
  • Do a thorough self-assessment.  Know what you want to do, what you are passionate about, what drives you, and link where you have been to where you are going.
  • Don’t use bullet pts in the essays – ok, this one did grab my attention.  Apparently too many people are used to PowerPoint and forget to write in prose.
  • Write in your own voice and let your personality shine through
  • Show it, not just say it, and you’ll get it -  don’t just say you have so and so qualities, but have actual examples or stories to back it up

My Movie

I’m watching Angels and Demons with my parents over the break.  Watching movies w/ my mom is quite funny, but mostly annoying b/c she talk and ask questions constantly through out the movie.  She gets quite into the movie almost every time and react as if people in the movie can hear her.  I got my laptop w/ me and I started jotting down the stuff she said.  This is just a taste of what I got to deal w/.  I got tired at of this so I didn’t write down everything she said… that would easily make this post 3 or 5 times as long.  Plus I removed material that could possibly spoil the movie for you if you haven’t seen it.

  • Is that blood?
  • Who’s the dead guy?
  • So the bad guy already got inside?
  • How did the bad guy get in?
  • What are they trying to find?
  • What’s that symbol?
  • What’s it for?
  • Where did they go? Why didn’t they follow him?
  • They’re remodeling the church? That’s how you remodel?
  • You can take guns inside (a church)?
  • A rat!
  • Ah, right there!
  • He’s dead already right? Yuck, he’s dead.  Why did they do that? It looks like he’s been dead for a long time.
  • It’s a mess out there.  It’s dangerous for that little girl to be out there
  • mm… all that blood.
  • This is a church but it’s so graphic
  • What’s he trying to find this time?
  • Did they know he stole something last time?
  • How did this happen?  How is this possible?
  • Does he have the strength to do that?  Oh no, that didn’t work…  he’s about to faint.  they’re all gonna die.  oh yeah, he’s dead.  He’s dead.
  • Why can’t they do an autopsy?  You should at least check right?  Oh, it’s all black!

My Coffee Trade

Chalk this up to another Seattle inspired post I suppose.  Seattle has tons of coffee places, including of course Starbucks.  During my visit in May I stopped by this coffee stand everybody was raving about on Yelp call Monorail Espresso.  I hung out for a while to chat w/ the barista, who is just a nice old man (not like the spiked-up hair eyebrow ring hipster punks in Austin).  I asked him what is the deal w/ the coffee culture in Seattle, and he told me that it has to do w/ the water having a certain quality that’s just really nice for brewing coffee.  Another reason is the Scandinavian heritage of the city and that culture’s affinity for tea and coffee.  I believe the 2nd part more, b/c it’s damn cold and Seattle also has this troll sculpture/statue under a bridge, which has to do w/ Norweigian? Swedish? folklore.

Anyway, DDRX, GMCR, and PEET has been my play and a little bit of CBOU.  I lost a lot of money shorting some of these stocks at first… it was so frustrating.  I thought they were total crap but I was fighting the trend.  Since them I’ve traded them on both sides.  I covered my PEET short not too long after the break out seems to fading but covered it after it broke $40 and I covered my DDRX long as well then switch into a very small GMCR short position.  I don’t have a good read on the stock, at least intraday it moves weird.  Of course now there are TWO offers on the table for DDRX, no more long positions, from GMCR and PEET, again, no short… Yeah, I made some on the GMCR but the other is making me look like a fool.

I believe DDRX gave PEET an extension to match GMCR’s offer by Monday.  Personally, I don’t think PEET should do it and instead focus on growing organically.  They’re doing quite well and my friends that are real java snobs all seem to prefer Peet’s over, achem, Starbucks.  Starbucks is really just too sweet.  Especially their holiday drinks.  Men’s Health put like at least 3 of them on their worst drinks list (health and calories wise).  I’ve grown a real distaste for their chai latte ever since I visited The Crumpet Shop, again, in Seattle.  In all seriousness, they have this awesome goosenberry crumpet and the chai tea is just spot on.  Look at me, getting off track again.  The play here: look for DDRX to reject one of the company’s bid and buy that one.  Not touching DDRX and SBUX, which has rebounded nicely after answering competition fro MCD.

Oh, and the nice old man (I think his name was Kosta), he has B.S. 1980 or something on his menu board.  He told me the BS stands for before Starbucks, as in he opened before SBUX… I went home and looked it up, heh, SBUX was founded way before that.  The date he was referring to I think when Howard Schultz joined the company and it really took off.

My Black Friday

First of all, I started wondering today why do they call Friday after Thanksgiving Black Friday.  My parents joked around that it could be b/c it’s pitch black outside while you’re waiting in line at 3 a.m. or the sticker price falls off the cliff like stock prices during a crash like Black Tuesday or Black Friday.  After doing a little search online, it seems like there are two prevailing answers.  First answer is that this Friday kicks off the shopping season and b/c of this many stores turn profitable, or in a different expression, in the black (as opposed to red, losing money).  The second answer is this kind of expression is used by the police department or bus/cab drivers to refer to heavy traffic.

Personally… the first explanation makes sense, but to think a retailer is losing money 10 out of 12 months or just this one day is ludicrous.  I mean, it’s gotta be some shitty ass store.  How many Montgomery Wards and Circuit City’s are out there?  Let me know and I’ll short the hell out of it.

Anyway, something more interesting than bargains and steals is the market today.  We got half of a day to catch up to events outside the US.  Man, if there are more days like this, I might have to consider spend more time trading.  The US Dollar strengthened quite a bit on Wednesday I believe; I think I saw it @ > 1.51 vs the Euro sometime during the day but over the course of Thursday it weakened significantly.  Most traders I believe are aware of this inverse relationship btwn the Dollar and the stock market, I won’t go into the different reasoning and theories.  Huge gap down, market trying to rebound and then fizzle out at the end and close below intraday low.  I personally was thinking the support would come in close to the 10,000 on the Dow but maybe 10,300.  We’ll have to see how the market reacts on Monday.

Side note: I got some Euros @ a Barclays in Spain last November @ almost exactly 1.25 rate.  Since currencies often trade around nice whole even numbers, I was pretty convinced this was the low and I’ve been holding on to them ever since.  I’ll admit, part of it is so I have a story to tell when I’m out at bars :P

I’m currently long some Chinese stocks, BIDU, CTRP, HMIN, entry price $353.05, $54.82, and $28.20.  I started getting in some shares of PWRD around $43.50 but it doesn’t look like it’s going to work very well.  I’m also short oil and refiners, but VERY cautiously since the Dollar is weak and weak Dollar boosts commodity prices.  I’m watching oil closely @ the $80 mark and my basis for shorting the refiners are that their crack spread is under attack.  Avg long price for DTO is just under $63 and my limit cover orders @ $70 got hit so I exited out part of my position already.  Wish I had set some higher than $70 this morning.  This is an ultra inverse so I’m watching this position very carefully.  All my refiners trades are mostly flat except for VLO, which has been working well.  CVX and XOM is not working.  I might close out these two positions.

That’s it for now.  Until next time!  I know I need to write about the rest of my B-school visits and continue the Kershner-Assent posts.  It seems like somebody, either prospective or current traders, caught wind of that comparison post I wrote and caused a spike in my readers.  They’re coming, I promise.

My Foster

Of the five schools I visited on the west coast I would rank them in the following order:

  1. Stanford GSB
  2. Anderson
  3. Haas
  4. Foster
  5. Marshall

This has nothing to do w/ other publication’s rankings like Financial, Business Week or U.S. News.  It’s strictly based on my impression and experience while I was on campus, sitting in on a class, and interaction with students and admissions.  It’s my take on the schools.  If all you really care about is the rankings, well, you know where to find them.

I find it a little hard to differentiate MBA programs sometimes. Even if you spend a significant amount of time reading through the syllabi, I think that still doesn’t give you an exact picture what the curriculum is like. A lot of the first year courses are similar and material I had already learned in undergrad.  B/c of that I’m looking for curriculum that I can customize more and allows me to take more electives.  I’m going to comment on the stuff that’s important to me w/ each school and try to keep all the comments positive.

Since I like Seattle so much, I’m going to start w/ Foster School of Business first.  Just strictly looking at the numbers first, all the stats are a little lower than other top tier b-schools.  Each entering class is smaller, the GMAT, GPA, and avg salary are all a little lower as well.  I know schools like Stanford and Haas both intentionally keep their class size small at about 350 and 250, respectively and Foster only has a little over 100.  You can find the detailed break down here.

From the info session, the Assistant Dean was saying that only about 1/3 of the students actually end up working for major corporations.  In my experience, Seattle is a little bit different and that was my general impression of the school as well.  Not everybody is there so they can go into consulting or investment banking to make the big bucks.  And if I understand the typical ranking methodologies correctly, a lot is weighted on recruiter survey, job placement, and starting salary.  However, if the most of the students’ top priority isn’t to get the top dollar jobs, maybe that’s why Foster isn’t ranked as high as other schools.

The Preview Weekend was cool.  The official agenda was a presentation/info session by the Assistant Dean, followed by an application workshop for the first day.  The second day was presentations, student and alumni panels, and some opportunities to mingle with current 1st years.  I only end up going to the first info session and went sit in a class, which wasn’t part of the official agenda and as far as I know I was the only one that went to sit in a class while someone from Admissions talk about the different certification program Foster has.  I think I made a good decision on that.

Environment: A
Love, and I mean absolutely loooooove Seattle.  It’s so green and outdoorsy.  The air just smells different up here.  People say that Seattle rains all the time, well, it’s not rain as you traditionally would think.  In Texas when it rains, it’s pouring and visibility declines dramatically.  If you go outside you’re just gonna be drenched.  The rain in Seattle is really more like a mist, almost insignificant.  The precipitation is like when they turn on the sprinklers in the produce section at the grocery stores. Tons of live music in Seattle as well.

Job prospect: A
Seattle has quite a few companies that I would be interested in working for like Microsoft, Amazon.com, Costco, Boeing and Starbucks. That said, you don’t HAVE to go to Foster to get a job placement with these companies.

School: B
UW’s campus is really pretty. Parts of it, like the football stadium, is right on the water. Foster, the b-school by itself though, is more on the old side.  You also share it w/ the undergrads so it’s a little cramped, at least that’s how I felt. They do make it up for it slightly by having a lounge specifically for the MBA students.  Plus they’re building a new building named after PACCAR that will be ready in 2010.

Curriculum: B
First year required courses… yeah, blah.  They look the same almost everywhere. As far as electives go, there are quite a bit of management, finance, and entrepreneurship. I personally would like to see a little more in operations, but I imagine supply chain isn’t that exciting of a topic.

I sat in a Strategic Management class while I visited Foster. From what my student host told me, the professor, Charles Hill, used to (or maybe still do) serve as consultant to companies like Boeing and what made the class interesting to me was his input from all kinds of industries which made the lectures really engaging, instead of just bunch of models or graphs on PowerPoint.

Students: B
MBA admissions look for diverse student body partially b/c they believe part of what you learn in the classroom is from your classmates and I agree w/ that.  I can’t say I was super impressed by the students I’ve met there, but they were extremely willing to go out of their way to help me w/ my objective, which is to gain a better understanding of the school.  Teamwork is another thing like diversity a lot of schools use or preach.  While I didn’t necessarily felt that at some schools, *cough* Marshall, this behavior surprised me.

I mentioned to my student host that a lot of the classes I’ve visited is 1st yr classes and they’re pretty much all alike and it’s hard to see what’s “special” about the school.  The student host and his roommate immediately jumped in and asked me what would help, to which I responded that I would like to sit in on a 2nd yr class if I could.  Unfortunately I was there on a Friday so there wasn’t any classes available, but they introduced me to some actual 2nd yr students and tried to see if they could get me to go on this field trip to Nucor that was happening the day I was there.  They extended invitation as well to an happy hour event and their tailgate at the UW football the next day.

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